Plan
Segments
Who the customers are, in groups a shift manager can name and act on.
RFM quintiles over the point-of-sale sample, assigned by a decision list so the rules read in order rather than as overlapping sets. Stability is the share of customers keeping their segment across 25 bootstrap resamples.
Revenue by segment
Recent and frequent. The evening regulars the whole estate runs on.
Frequent but not necessarily recent. Worth a reason to come back this week.
Long gone. Reactivation spend here rarely pays back.
Came recently, has not built a habit yet. The cheapest group to convert.
Used to be frequent and has stopped. The most expensive group to lose.
Everyone else. Do not build a campaign around them.
Larger baskets, moderate frequency. Respond to bundles, not discounts.
The numbers behind them
| segment | customers | revenue | avg basket | median recency | median visits | revenue share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Champions | 485 | 217.5k | 42.50 | 18d | 7 | 58.3% |
| Loyal | 257 | 66.1k | 42.26 | 96d | 5 | 17.7% |
| Hibernating | 497 | 28.4k | 43.65 | 216d | 1 | 7.6% |
| Promising | 225 | 18.1k | 39.67 | 24d | 2 | 4.9% |
| At risk | 147 | 17.2k | 41.77 | 170d | 3 | 4.6% |
| Occasional | 188 | 15.2k | 41.32 | 79d | 2 | 4.1% |
| Big spenders | 55 | 10.4k | 60.61 | 32d | 3 | 2.8% |
Response curves
The response ceilings and saturation rates are structural assumptions, not fitted values: no promotion has run, so there is nothing to fit them to. Phase D's measured lift replaces them.
| segment | ceiling | saturation rate | customers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Champions | 10% | 0.90 | 485 |
| Loyal | 16% | 0.70 | 257 |
| Hibernating | 6% | 0.30 | 497 |
| Promising | 26% | 0.50 | 225 |
| At risk | 22% | 0.45 | 147 |
| Occasional | 9% | 0.50 | 188 |
| Big spenders | 14% | 0.60 | 55 |